今年藝術(shù)品拍賣表現(xiàn)良好，藝術(shù)品市場正在強勢復(fù)蘇，疫情防控常態(tài)化下已經(jīng)后遺癥，市場將何去何從？

　　This year's art auctions have performed well, and the art trading market is recovering strongly. Under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, there are already sequelae. Where will the market go?

　　疫情對藝術(shù)行業(yè)影響到底有多大？

　　How much impact has the epidemic had on the art industry?

　　疫情是否會造成藝術(shù)品行業(yè)的衰退？

　　Will the epidemic cause a decline in the art industry?

　　答案是：否定的。

　　The answer is: no.

　　據(jù)了解，歐美發(fā)達(dá)的財產(chǎn)投資組合中，對文化藝術(shù)品的投資占比達(dá)20%，而在國內(nèi)一線城市中，這個比例僅為5%。而根據(jù)胡潤研究院發(fā)布的權(quán)威數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計指出，預(yù)計到2028年，這個數(shù)字有望突破30萬億元。

　　It is reported that in the property investment portfolios of developed countries in Europe and America, investment in cultural and artistic works accounts for 20%, while in first tier cities in China, this proportion is only 5%. According to authoritative data released by Hurun Research Institute, it is expected that this number will exceed 30 trillion yuan by 2028.

　　這也意味著，十年之后，如果國內(nèi)能實現(xiàn)家庭、個人財產(chǎn)對文化藝術(shù)品的投資達(dá)到歐美20%的水平。

　　This also means that in ten years, if China can achieve a level of 20% investment in cultural and artistic works by families and personal property compared to Europe and America.

　　那么屆時，國內(nèi)的藝術(shù)品投資市場規(guī)模將達(dá)到6萬億元。要知道，國內(nèi)目前的藝術(shù)品市場規(guī)模只有幾千億元。

　　So by then, the domestic art investment market in China will reach a scale of 6 trillion yuan. You should know that the current art market size in China is only a few hundred billion yuan.

　　也就是說，未來十年內(nèi)，藝術(shù)品市場將從幾千億的規(guī)模猛增到六萬億，市場需求和容量將擴大10倍左右，國內(nèi)藝術(shù)品市場將名副其實迎來發(fā)展“黃金期”。

　　That is to say, in the next decade, the Chinese art market will soar from several hundred billion to six trillion, with market demand and capacity expanding by about 10 times. The domestic art market in China will truly usher in a "golden period" of development.

　　誠然，一個市場連續(xù)十年增長并非“奇跡”，而若能在十年的時間實現(xiàn)十倍以上的增長，就不得不說是個“奇跡”，而上一個發(fā)生在的“奇跡”就是房地產(chǎn)：2008年房地產(chǎn)GDP才1.27萬億，而到了2017年，這個數(shù)據(jù)就變成了10.98萬億，十年間增長了近十倍。

　　Undoubtedly, a market that has grown continuously for ten years is not a "miracle", and if it can achieve more than ten times the growth in ten years, it must be said to be a "miracle". The last "miracle" that occurred in China was the real estate industry: in 2008, China's real estate GDP was only 1.27 trillion yuan, but by 2017, this data had become 10.98 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly ten times in ten years.

　　藝術(shù)品本身就具備極強的“增值保值”屬性，意大利收藏家貝利尼就曾說過：“世界上只有藝術(shù)品是有價值的，股票的平均增值率是40%，而藝術(shù)品的增值率是95%”。前段時間網(wǎng)上盛傳的一段“王健林談藝術(shù)品收藏”的視頻無疑也印證了貝利尼的話。

　　Artworks themselves possess strong "appreciation and preservation" properties. Italian collector Bellini once said, "Only artworks are the most valuable in the world. The average appreciation rate of stocks is 40%, while the appreciation rate of artworks is 95%. A video recently circulating online titled 'Wang Jianlin Talks about Art Collection' undoubtedly confirms Bellini's words.

　　眼下，當(dāng)樓市回歸“房住不炒”的理性，大量的社會資產(chǎn)、財產(chǎn)將失去“增值、保值”的重要渠道。當(dāng)此之時，藝術(shù)品市場迎來大發(fā)展，正是大勢所趨。

　　At present, when the real estate market returns to the rationality of "housing for living, not speculation", a large amount of social assets and property will lose important channels for "appreciation and preservation". At this time, the art market is experiencing significant development, which is the trend of the times.

　　未來十年，隨著金融資本大量進(jìn)入藝術(shù)品市場，藝術(shù)品將變成一種投資品，其“保

　　In the next decade, with a large amount of financial capital entering the art market, art will become an investment product, and its "protection

　　值、增值”的金融屬性將被無限放大。

　　The financial attributes of value and appreciation will be infinitely magnified.

　　盡管藝術(shù)品不像“衣食住行”那樣，是生活必需品，但“增值、保值”卻是實實在在的“剛需”。

　　Although art is not a necessity like "clothing, food, housing, and transportation", "appreciation and preservation" are tangible "necessities".

　　未來十年，當(dāng)人們逐漸解決“衣食住行”難題，如何讓資產(chǎn)、財產(chǎn)“增值、保值”，就是的“剛需”市場。并且，這種“剛需”不只針對富人，也針對普通家庭。

　　In the next decade, as people gradually solve the problem of "clothing, food, housing, and transportation", how to make assets and property "appreciate and preserve value" will be the biggest "essential demand" market. And this' essential need 'is not only targeted at the wealthy class, but also at ordinary families.

　　可以說，未來十年，投資藝術(shù)品及藝術(shù)衍生品將成為“全民剛需”，6萬億的新興龐大市場已經(jīng)到來。上一個十年，我們躺在房地產(chǎn)上“數(shù)錢”，下一個十年，我們將枕著藝術(shù)品“入夢”！

　　It can be said that in the next decade, investing in art and art derivatives will become a "national necessity", and the emerging huge market of 6 trillion yuan has arrived. In the last decade, we lay on real estate to 'count money', and in the next decade, we will 'dream' of art under our pillows!

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